SEOUL — South Korea’s K-pop industry is expected to enter a new growth phase this year, led by the long-awaited return of global sensation BTS, with the boy band announcing this week its seven members would reunite in April for a world tour.
After the disruption of mandatory military service for its members, BTS is launching its first global concert series in four years, according to its management agency, Hybe. The yearlong tour will begin in Goyang, north of Seoul, before heading to Tokyo and then cities in North and South America and Europe. They will return to Asia and also visit Australia from November to March 2027.
HSBC analysts said in a note on Tuesday that they expected BTS to generate 1.5 trillion won ($1 billion) in sales this year, three times higher than in 2025. They project 708 billion won in concert sales, 495 billion won in merchandise sales and 170 billion won from record sales, with the first new studio album in more than five years expected to be released in March.
Combined revenues for the three major companies in the sector — Hybe, SM Entertainment, and JYP Entertainment — are expected to grow about 34% year on year in 2026, driven largely by a sharp increase in concert attendance and higher ticket prices in overseas markets. The U.S., now the world’s most lucrative music market, is emerging as the key battleground, as K-pop acts expand stadium-scale tours and benefit from dynamic pricing.
“We believe that concerts will remain the most critical growth segment for the K-pop sector in 2026. Announcements regarding the scale of world tours by major artists will likely be the key catalysts for the share price performance,” HSBC analyst Kim Jun-hyun said.
Hybe is expected to benefit the most. Unlike its peers, the company directly organizes and produces concerts in all regions, except Southeast Asia, allowing it to fully capture the growth in audiences and rise in ticket prices.
The concert-led recovery, however, is not limited to a single label. YG Entertainment, once a member of the “Big Three,” is staging a comeback, supported by a deepening artist roster and an expanding global touring slate. Girl band Blackpink’s world tour is expected to extend into 2026, while YG’s rookie group Babymonster is gaining traction rapidly following its first world tour, which drew more than 300,000 attendees.
“YG is projected to post a near 19% increase in operating profit in 2026, reflecting both higher concert revenue and a leaner business structure after exiting non-core operations,” Choi Min-ha, an analyst at Samsung Securities, said in a note last month.
However, analysts are cautious about the reopening of a Chinese market that has effectively been closed to the K-pop industry for the past 10 years, after Beijing was angered by South Korea agreeing to host U.S. anti-missile systems. They feel it may take time for it to benefit from a summit between South Korea and China this month. President Lee Jae Myung said he discussed the cultural restrictions with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing, and the issues would be resolved step by step.
“We continue to believe that the timing of a meaningful resumption of K-pop concerts in China remains uncertain, and even if concerts were to resume, it will likely take time before they generate material ticket revenues,” said Kim at HSBC.
